SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales.
The complete report is available at:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/june
The organizers thank the groups that contributed to the 2017 June
report; 33 contributions that include pan-Arctic predictions, 2
additional contributions with a regional focus, and 7 Antarctic
forecasts. This June Outlook report was developed by lead authors
Julienne Stroeve (NSIDC) and Walt Meier (NASA GSFC), with contributions
from Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW), Francois Massonnet (Université
Catholique de Louvain) and the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team.
(https://www.arcus.org/sipn/leadership).
The median Outlook value for September 2017 sea ice extent is 4.43
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.10 and 4.71 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and two informal polls.
This month's report also includes:
- A discussion about the 14 dynamical model contributions and their variance;
- A section on predicted spatial fields with discussion on sea ice
probability (SIP) and the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of
dynamical models;
- A section on current sea ice and atmospheric conditions;
- A section on regional ice conditions;
- A discussion of pan-Antarctic contributions,
- Key statements from the 33 individual pan-Arctic Outlook; and
- Links to view or download the pan-Arctic Outlook, pan-Antarctic,
regional, and informal contributions.
This is the first monthly SIO for the 2017 season. A call for
contributions for the July report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy@arcus.org
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